Each week I will take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel. I will examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team, and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I'm attempting to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup but I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide and you will have multiple options which will help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Eli Manning ($8,100) + Odell Beckham Jr ($9,400) = $17,500
When these two teams met in Week 8 last year in New Orleans, 101 points were scored as the defenses could not stop the offenses on either side. However, that game was played in New Orleans and this one will be played in East Rutherford, New Jersey and that’s very relevant for the Saints.
The Saints and quarterback Drew Brees perform much better at home than they do on the road. Brees threw 32 total touchdowns in 2015; 23 at home and only 9 on the road. However, with an implied total of 24 points, they’ll push the Giants and keep Manning throwing to Beckham and the rest of the Giants skill position players.
The Saints just allowed 486 yards through the air in Week 1 to the Oakland Raiders, and they finished No. 31 in the NFL in passing defense in 2015 allowing 413.4 yards per game. The Saints are going to struggle to stop the Giants passing offense and Manning and Beckham have a chance to do something special in this matchup.
Pivot: If you’re looking to stay on the Giants side and grab a wide receiver at a cheaper piece then look at Sterling Shepard ($6,200). From a skillset perspective, he is the perfect complement to Beckham as he runs great routes, creating separation early in his routes while Beckham attacks the intermediate to deeper areas of the field. Vegas likes the Giants as the highest scoring team of the week with an implied total of 28.5 so starting the skill position players for the Giants makes sense.
Andy Dalton ($7,800) + A.J. Green ($8,900) = $16,700
A.J. Green looked as good as a receiver can look in Week 1 when he faced off against Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. He was targeted 13 times last week and he’ll continue to see a tremendous amount of volume in this offense, plus he’ll see red zone work as well with tight end Tyler Eifert still out. History also favors Green against the Steelers as he’s shredded them over the past few seasons. This game has a total of 48.5 points with the Steelers favored by three at home. There is a very good possibility that the Bengals play a tight, high scoring game this week and that means good things for Dalton and Green.
Blake Bortles ($8,100) + Allen Robinson ($8,200) = $16,300
The Jaguars travel to San Diego to take on the Chargers in Week 2 in a contest that looks to be very favorable for both offenses. Robinson is a target hog and the volume isn’t going away anytime soon. It’s actually helped by the fact that the Jaguars struggle to run the ball as they’re left in second- and third-and-long situations fairly consistently. T.J. Yeldon isn’t going to make this offense go away from leaning heavily on the passing attack, and the Chargers front four isn’t going to generate enough pressure to make Bortles uncomfortable.
Yes, Chargers cornerback Jason Verrett is an excellent player but the sheer volume alone will allow for Robinson to get enough opportunity, and that’s if the Jaguars don’t move Robinson around to get him away from Verrett. I’d argue that Robinson can get it done in this game even if he is matched up with Verrett all day, but his numbers could be fantastic if the Jaguars do creative things to get him locked up with other defenders.
Pivot: If you’re looking to lessen the cost of a Jaguars stack, a move to wide receiver Allen Hurns ($6,900) could pay dividends while allowing for a little more of your salary to be spent elsewhere. It’s risky because of the reasons I’ve described above with Verrett but a move that could pay dividends if Verrett stays on Robinson throughout the game. Hurns caught four of his five targets last week and totaled 75 yards, and he’s solidly the No. 2 receiver in Jacksonville.
Derek Carr ($8,300) + Amari Cooper ($7,900) = $16,200
The Raiders get the high powered Falcons in Week 2 and they face a defense that struggled to stop the passing game in Week 1, surrendering four scores to the Buccaneers. This game should be one of the highest scoring games of the week as the total is 49.5, good for third highest in Week 2. Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant didn’t move around against Tampa Bay and that means they’ll be plenty of opportunity for Amari Cooper against this secondary.
Cooper was targeted 11 times last week as he hauled in six catches for 137 yards. He is an advanced route runner, capable of creating separation with his initial quickness over short areas, and also with his long speed. Cooper has earned the trust of Carr and is solidly the No. 1 option in Oakland, and the volume he receives will allow him to be productive with a high ceiling. Cooper is skilled enough to win versus Trufant through volume, and he’ll tear up anyone else the Falcons throw at him.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Drew Brees ($9,200) + Willie Snead ($7,200) = $16,400
It’s probably surprising for some of you to see Brees and company in a “higher risk” category but there here for one reason and that’s because they are on the road. Last year, Brees threw 32 total touchdowns, but only nine came on the road. Still, it’s the Saints and the Giants, and this should be a super high scoring affair and this matchup makes it easier to play Brees, on the road or not. There is just a bit more risk than there would be if the Saints were at home.
Last week the Giants gave up eight catches to Cowboys receiver Cole Beasley and much of that came against the same defensive backs Snead will see this week. Snead was targeted nine times and caught all nine for 172 yards and a score in Week 1. He’s in line for a potentially big week in this matchup and he’s similar in volume to No. 1 receiver Brandin Cooks (both saw nine targets in Week 1), but he comes at a nice discount.
Pivot: Brandin Cooks ($8,400) went off catching six passes for 143 yards and two scores in Week 1. It’s hard to look at that stat-line and not get excited about playing him, and I’d say if you’re looking for more volatility (and possibly a little more ceiling) then Cooks is a good play, but it comes at a hefty price.
Jameis Winston ($7,600) + Mike Evans ($8,100) = $15,700
This is mainly about game script and the numbers behind what Vegas is expecting out of this game. The total is 50 which is good for second highest of the week, and Arizona is favored by 6.5 points. Tampa Bay’s implied total is 22 and I think the script calls for a large amount of passing in the second half of this game. One thing to consider is whether Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson is on Evans the entire game. Can the Buccaneers get Evans away from Peterson? If they can I’d say Evans is in for a big day.
A side effect of the coverage situation is that most are going to shy away from this stack this week because of how strong Peterson and safety Tyrann Mathieu are in coverage, and that means they’ll have low ownership percentages making the payoff huge, relatively speaking. In Week 1, the Patriots moved the ball fairly well on Arizona out in the desert without quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski, and the combination of all of these factors makes the duo a high-risk play that could pay off in a big way.
Matthew Stafford ($7,800) + Marvin Jones ($6,500) = $14,300
Last week the Lions scored two rushing touchdowns, but I’d call that a black swan against a very banged up Colts defense. It won’t be nearly as easy for the running game this week when the Lions bring the Titans into town as their defensive front is much more skilled than the Colts. That helps Stafford as the Lions will continue to use the short throwing game to move the ball. It’s all about getting the ball out quickly and into the hands of players that can make defenders miss and break tackles to generate yards after the catch.
Stafford was 27-of-30 last week on throws under 10 yards and that’s the blueprint going forward. He’ll continue to get the ball out quickly as the Lions are tailoring a game plan to put Stafford into a comfortable situation, and that means dealing with as little pressure as possible. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t take shots down the field, and that’s where Jones steps into the equation. Jones saw 10 targets last week which was 27 percent of the team’s total. He only converted four into catches, but last week the Titans let Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs get to work behind them, and Jones could be that guy this week. The Lions implied total is 27, and the likeliest game script is most or all of that coming through the passing game.
Pivot: The Lions passing attack is going to be on this list a bunch this year but one difficulty is going to be deciding on which receiver to stack with Stafford. This week I see it better with Jones, but Golden Tate ($6,700) is going to consistently see lots of high-efficiency targets that he should convert into catches which gives him opportunity to generate points in bunches. He is a nice pivot if you’re looking for more security out of a Lions stack.
Marcus Mariota ($7,500) + Delanie Walker ($6,600) = $14,100
This is my favorite stack of the week as it seems obvious that this combination should go off in this game. The Lions simply can’t cover athletic tight ends and that was on display in Week 1. The Colts tight ends scored three touchdowns last week, but this isn’t a one-week trend. They allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends in the NFL last year and that trend should continue this week.
Rookie receiver Tajae Sharpe saw 11 targets last week and that cut into Walker’s usage, but Sharpe draw Lions cornerback Darius Slay this week and that will limit his opportunity overall. The beneficiary is Walker who should dominate underneath and down the seam.
Also, the Lions implied total is 27 and they are favored by 5.5 points, so they should score enough points to have Tennessee throwing the ball throughout this game. Another factor here is that the Lions are stout up front and should limit the Tennessee running game and leave the passing game to do the work. It all adds up to Mariota and Walker having a big day.
DEFENSIVE STACKS
Carolina Panthers ($5,300) + Jonathan Stewart ($6,700) = $12,000
The Panthers take on the San Francisco 49ers at home this week and are favored by 13 points, while the 49ers have the lowest implied total of the week at 16 points. The 49ers are going to have a very tough time moving the ball on this stout Carolina defense while the Panthers offense should be killing clock through the running game somewhat early in this contest. I’d also mention that pressure effects 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert very negatively which could bring a few turnovers the Panthers way. Lastly, I am expecting the 49ers to do a lot pf punting which gives the return game a better chance of making a splash play.
New England Patriots ($4,600) + LeGarrette Blount ($6,000) = $10,600
The Patriots bring the Miami Dolphins into Gillette Stadium in Week 2. It’s tough to see a scenario where the Dolphins offense does all that much versus the Patriots defense. Vegas doesn’t like the Dolphins this week (second lowest implied total at 17.5) and it’s easy to see the Patriots up in this game and pounding the ball with Blount. Blount’s usage is interesting as he had 22 carries in Week 1 with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm and I don’t think that changes this week. c
